Why Read?

• Understand the background behind Aldesa’s difficult 2018 and the precipitous drop in bond price
• Understand why Aldesa’s situation is different to the failed Astaldi and CMC Ravenna
• Understand the distinction between Restricted Group and Unrestricted Group and the importance of zoning in on the Restricted Group
• Understand valuation assumptions around the Unrestricted Group and its importance vis-a-vis the bond maturity
• Understand the working capital cycle and how it impacts FCF generation
• Understand catalysts and risks for the long thesis
• Understand options available to the company in order to meet bond maturity
• Understand Aldesa’s valuation sensitivity to working capital, new orders and cost of capital in terms of equity cushion and debt coverage
• Understand the difference between recourse and non-recourse debt as it impacts Aldesa’s ability to meet its debt servicing obligations at the Restricted Group
• Understand in detail the Concessions business within Aldesa

What’s New?

• Valuation of assets within the Unrestricted Group and Concessions business, both using Aldesa’s high cost of equity but also from the perspective of potential infrastructure fund buyers
• Valuation sensitivity analysis – understanding impact of working capital, new orders and cost of capital
• Discounting the importance of consolidated numbers when assessing Aldesa’s ability to repay / refinance the bonds
• Focusing on the Restricted Group metrics with potential for cash proceeds from asset sales within the Unrestricted Group

Questions Answered

• What is our base case valuation of Aldesa and its key sensitivities?
• Can Aldesa generate sufficient FCF to refinance / repay its bond maturity in 2021?
• Where will Aldesa be in terms of liquidity when the RCF matures in 2020 and nearer the maturity of the bond in 2021?