Aldesa Memo 190619
- Understand what self-help options Aldesa has (working capital reversal and asset sale potential) and whether there is a path to refinancing
- Understand how out-of-court restructuring options may be able to deliver 80% or higher value for senior secured notes
- Understand Aldesa’s quarterly working capital drivers and whether Q1 2019 will reverse
- Understand Aldesa’s liquidity
- Understand Aldesa’s off balance sheet items and their potential impact on liquidity and leverage – factoring and reverse factoring; performance guarantees; sales of backlog
- Understand asset sale potential – restricted group non-operational assets; unrestricted group assets
- Understand the background behind Aldesa’s difficult 2018 and Q1 2019 and the precipitous drop in bond price
- Understand why Aldesa’s situation is different to the failed Astaldi and CMC Ravenna
- Understand the distinction between restricted group and unrestricted group
- Understand Aldesa’s valuation sensitivity to working capital, new orders and cost of capital in terms of equity cushion and debt coverage
- Understand in detail the Concessions business within Aldesa
- Analysis of out-of-court restructuring options as well as self-help options
- Liquidity projections – including stressing for further reduction in confirming lines and non-typical working capital reversal
- Identification of potential assets for sale – both non-operational within restricted group and unrestricted group
- Valuation of the business and recovery rate
- Is there a self-help path to refinancing of senior secured notes for Aldesa?
- What can senior secured note holders expect from any out-of-court restructuring?
- When does liquidity break and what could accelerate this?
- Is Aldesa’s Q1 2019 working capital outflow likely to reverse and by how much?
- To what extent does Aldesa’s working capital movement reflect reduced confirming line lender and customer appetite to extend credit risk or shift in business mix towards private sector and Industrial / energy segments?
- What is our base case valuation of Aldesa and its key sensitivities? How does recovery look?
- View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
- Business Overview
- Key Events
- Restricted Group
- Valuation & Sensitivity Analysis