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AMC Memo 060521

AMC. Film-By-Film Analysis Of Post-COVID Revenue Recovery Trajectory. How Well Does DCF EV Cover 1L & 2L SSNs?
PUBLISHED: 06 May 2021
PAGES: 100
SUBMARKET: AMC, Top Reports, Top Reports,


Why Read?

  • Understand the film slate by quarter for 2021 (and our expectations for 2022 film slate), our projections for box office revenue for the likely top 10 grossing films and what these imply for AMC’s revenue trajectory coming out of COVID
  • Understand how much of film revenue comes from box office, home entertainment, pay TV and streaming video on demand (SVOD) and what this implies for studio economics when evaluating how to balance length of any exclusive theatrical window vs early release on SVOD
  • Understand how well covered AMC’s 1L and 2L SSNs and Senior Subordinated Notes are by DCF EV under our scenarios

What’s New?

  • Box office revenue projections for likely top 10 grossing films in 2021 
  • Financial projections, DCF valuation and sensitivities, with attendance driven by (besides COVID restrictions) our film-by-film box office revenue projections 

Questions Answered

  • Given pricing of new film releases on to SVOD, are studios incentivised to reduce exclusive theatrical windows or would they be cannibalising their revenue when releasing to SVOD early and how does the same decision look in terms of profitability?
  • Does AMC have sufficient liquidity post its equity raise, new Odeon Term Loan Facility and 1L PIK-Toggle SSNs issuance in Q1 21?
  • How well does AMC compare vs Regal, Cinemark and Cineplex in terms of financial and operational performance?
  • What are the structural trends in cinema attendance, ticket pricing and other sources of revenue?
  • What transactions multiples have been seen in the cinema sector?
  • What are AMC’s typical lease terms and how much success is it having in gaining concessions (reductions and / or deferrals) on these?

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