Sectors > Top Reports > Amigo Loans Memo 290620

Amigo Loans Memo 290620

Amigo. Expect c. £206m Customer Redress Costs & Lifetime Principal Loan Loss Rate c. 33%. Securitization Facility Putback Feature & Acceleration Ensures Its Seniority To SSNs. Continue To Avoid SSNs & Equity Until / If SSNs Fall To ≤ 30 Cents
PUBLISHED: 29 June 2020
PAGES: 116
PRODUCT CODE: AMIGLN0001
SUBMARKET: Amigo Loans, Top Reports, Top Reports,

£2,670.00

Why Read?

  • Understand how we estimate Amigo’s total customer redress / conduct costs across Amigo’s FOS customer complaints / FCA VReq, Amigo-specific FCA Investigation and FCA multi-firm review of the guarantor loan sector at c. £206m
  • Understand how we estimate Amigo’s loan losses on Q3 20 Stage 1 gross customer loans at 33%
  • Understand how Amigo’s Securitization Facility works and the strong loan putback and acceleration rights this benefits from, making the £ 7.625 1/2024 Senior Secured Notes (SSNs) heavily subordinated here (unless Amigo files imminently for administration)
  • Understand how, from our estimated run-off cash flows, we arrive at a base case recovery on Amigo’s SSNs of 37 cents with a liability management exercise potentially improving this to 44 cents
  • Understand plays that SSNs holders may be able to pursue to seniorise their position vs customer redress claims and potentially against the putback rights of the Securitisation Facility
  • Understand why there may be value in Amigo’s SSNs should they drop below 30 cents
  • Understand why none of Non-Standard Finance, Provident Financial or New Day is likely to acquire Amigo in the near term 
  • Understand Richmond Group / Mr Bennamor’s likely current thinking on Amigo / the UK guarantor loans market and what possible plays he may make after selling down his stake in Amigo to zero
  • Understand why we believe it will ultimately be Amigo’s top-up / repeat lending that brings about its demise, both in terms of potential FCA actions beyond the current FOS backlog / FCA Vreq and in terms of latent asset quality problems
  • Understand why Amigo’s historic financials, whether seen as a corporate or bank, including “steady state” FCF assuming a constant loan book, were flawed as an indicator of the strength of the business 
  • Comparison of Amigo vs Non-Standard Finance (UK’s # 1 and #2 guarantor lenders respectively)

What’s New?

  • Estimated total customer redress / conduct costs
  • Estimated lifetime loan losses on Amigo’s loan book as part of run-off cash flow modelling
  • Securitisation Facility analysis
  • Loan loss analysis for Amigo during after the global financial crisis 

Questions Answered

  • What does Amigo’s COVID-19 forbearance and funding position disclosure post Q3 20 imply for its current level of arrears loans?
  • How instrumental has repeat lending been in masking unaffordable loans (from the borrower / guarantor perspective) and in inflating Amigo’s historic profitability and (steady state) FCF?
  • What can we learn from the Brighthouse and Wonga cases in terms of customer redress cost potential at Amigo?
  • What should SSNs holders do to try and protect their position vs customer redress claims and putback rights of the Securitisation Facility?
  • How severe could loan losses end up for Amigo, given its COVID-19 forbearance programme (and FCA forbearance requirements now extending to Oct-20), weak macro, lack of repeat lending currently that might otherwise mask asset quality problems, deliberate non-payment by borrowers and guarantors and lower liquidity in UK the guarantor loans market (which would otherwise enable some borrower refinancing) with Non-Standard Finance currently in breach of its own Securitisation Facility covenants?

  1. View, Variant Perception & Recommendations

  2. Estimating Customer Redress Costs

  3. Amigo’s Run-Off Cash Flows

  4. Steady State FCF & Amigo’s Financials As A “Bank”

  5. Amigo As A Takeover Target

  6. Group Structure, Indenture & Securitization Facility

  7. Business Overview & Analysis

  8. Historic Financials

    Appendix 1 – Non-Standard Finance Plc – Overview

Amigo 


Non-Standard Finance


Richmond Group


Brighthouse


Wonga


Provident Financial


New Day


 

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