ASDA Memo 060122
- Understand how resilient ASDA’s EV, FCF, leverage and liquidity are to potential revenue loss: (1) to Aldi as Aldi executes on its planned store openings to 2025; and (2) to normalisation of COVID-induced food stock-piling
- Understand how well covered ASDA’s Senior Secured Notes (SSNs) and Senior Notes (SNs) are across our base and bear cases
- Catchment area analysis of extent of competition ASDA may face from each of Aldi’s planned new store openings to 2025
- Comparison of ASDA’s KPIs vs other UK food retailers (including Morrison which we expect to refinance its acquisition bridge facilities in 2022, following its LBO) – sales and EBITDA densities, store estates, rent levels, margins, cash generation
- Financial projections, DCF valuation and sensitivities, across base and bear cases
- Has ASDA already absorbed, over FY 14- FY 16, most of the competitive impact from Aldi’s rise or is ASDA still particularly at risk of further market share loss to Aldi from the latter’s plans to open a further c. 300 stores by 2025?