Sectors > Transport & Logistics > Naviera Armas (ATG) Memo 170320
Naviera Armas (ATG) Memo 170320
- Price and route comparison across Naviera Armas / Trasmediterranea (ATG) vs competitors Fred Olsen Express and Balearia and vs airlines
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact analysis – updated base, bear and bull case financial projections and liquidity analysis / remaining liquidity levers in COVID-19 world
- Understand how ATG’s fuel hedging derivatives work and how its hedges and current fuel costs impact the Group’s competitive position in the new COVID-19 world
- Understand possible restructuring framework under the Spanish Insolvency Act
- Business analysis – segments, regions, clients, suppliers, substitutes, subsidies
- Industry overview and competitors analysis
- Trasmediterranea acquisition analysis
- Understand EBITDA potential of the business and decomposition of where EBITDA has fallen short vs pro-forma levels (plus synergies) at the time of the Trasmediterranea acquisition
- IMO 2020 and lower fuel prices impact – customer pricing, scrubbers EBITDA impact, hedging derivatives impact and scrubber financing
- Valuation – DCF & asset based
- Understand carve-outs for additional secured debt and what mitigates priming risk
- Detailed fleet analysis – vessels owned, chartered in and chartered out; charter rates; transactions; valuation and encumbrance
- Waterfall analysis and expected recovery rates across the capital structure
- Analysis of the capital structure, legal documentation of each debt instrument and bond pricing
- COVID-19 impact on ATG – updated base, bear and bull case financial and liquidity projections
- Detailed port infrastructure analysis – port locations, distance from airports etc.
- Detailed price and route comparison analysis vs competitors – pricing vs direct competitors and airlines and orphan / monopoly routes
- Fuel cost hedging deep dive
- What is the potential impact of COVID-19 on ATG?
- How are lower fuel prices affecting ATG and its competitive positioning?
- Under what circumstances would liquidity break and which additional liquidity levers remain?
- How does restructuring work under the Spanish Insolvency Act?
- Will the business be able to deleverage to the extent needed to refinance?
- What recovery can be expected on the Senior Secured Notes (SSNs)? Business and fleet-based valuations
- View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
- Business Overview
- Industry Overview
- Price & Route Comparison & Analysis
- Industry Regulation – IMO 2020
- Fuel cost hedging
- M&A – Trasmediterranea acquisition
- Historic Financial Analysis
- Group Structure & Capitalization
- Trading Update – ER Q319
- Forecast − Base Case
- Forecast − Bear Case
- Forecast − Bull Case
- Other Valuation Methods
- Liquidity, Capital Markets And Restructuring
- Investment Considerations