Pro-Gest Memo 180520
- Understand progress on Mantua plant increased production authorisation and how transformative this is likely to be for Pro-Gest’s Adj EBITDA, FCF, net leverage and liquidity
- Understand the value opportunity at Pro-Gest vs European container board and corrugated board and packaging peers
- Understand likely COVID-19 impact on Pro-Gest
- Understand Pro-Gest’s liquidity trajectory – cash at Cartiere Villa Lagarina vs rest of group; uncommitted working capital facilities; financial assets held; Monza plant sale; proceeds from repayment of (non-consolidated) “intra-group” receivable
- Understand key drivers in recovery analysis and our base and bear case recoveries and sensitivities
- Updated financial projections and valuation following Q4 / FY 19 results and COVID-19 development
- Review of Q4 / FY 2019 results and company updates
- Timetable of expected events
- How tight does liquidity get within FY 20?
- How are Pro-Gest’s Adj EBITDA, FCF and net leverage likely to evolve across our base and bear cases over FY 20 – FY 23 given the now expected authorisation of its Mantua plant’s permitted production to 400k tonnes per annum?
- What is the recovery range on Pro-Gest’s 3.25% 2024 senior unsecured bonds across our range of scenarios and sensitivities?
- What are the key catalysts and dates for these?
- View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
- Trading Update ─ ER Q419 (FY19)
- Base Case Forecasts
- Bear Case Forecats
- Investment Considerations