Sectors > Top Reports > Pro-Gest Memo 180520

Pro-Gest Memo 180520

Pro-Gest. Q4 19 ─ Catalysts Playing Out As Expected. COVID-19 Defensive Play. Strong Deleveraging Potential. Tight Liquidity. Buy SUNs at €62.20
PUBLISHED: 18 May 2020
PAGES: 101
SUBMARKET: Pro-Gest, Top Reports, Top Reports,


Why Read?

  • Understand progress on Mantua plant increased production authorisation and how transformative this is likely to be for Pro-Gest’s Adj EBITDA, FCF, net leverage and liquidity
  • Understand the value opportunity at Pro-Gest vs European container board and corrugated board and packaging peers
  • Understand likely COVID-19 impact on Pro-Gest
  • Understand Pro-Gest’s liquidity trajectory – cash at Cartiere Villa Lagarina vs rest of group; uncommitted working capital facilities; financial assets held; Monza plant sale; proceeds from repayment of (non-consolidated) “intra-group” receivable
  • Understand key drivers in recovery analysis and our base and bear case recoveries and sensitivities

What’s New?

  • Updated financial projections and valuation following Q4 / FY 19 results and COVID-19 development 
  • Review of Q4 / FY 2019 results and company updates
  • Timetable of expected events

Questions Answered

  • How tight does liquidity get within FY 20?
  • How are Pro-Gest’s Adj EBITDA, FCF and net leverage likely to evolve across our base and bear cases over FY 20 – FY 23 given the now expected authorisation of its Mantua plant’s permitted production to 400k tonnes per annum?
  • What is the recovery range on Pro-Gest’s 3.25% 2024 senior unsecured bonds across our range of scenarios and sensitivities?
  • What are the key catalysts and dates for these?

  1. View, Variant Perception & Recommendations

  2. Trading Update ─ ER Q419 (FY19)

  3. Forecasts

  4. Base Case Forecasts

  5. Bear Case Forecats

  6. Investment Considerations

  7. Appendix


Smurfit Kappa

DS Smith


Stora Enso

Metsa Board




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