Pure Gym Memo 260923
- Understand Potential EBITDA upside from international franchising in US, India and China
- Understand Potential EBITDA upside from Denmark refurbishment and Switzerland new gym openings / recovery towards pre-COVID economics
- Understand Potential EBITDA upside from existing base of gyms at Q2 23 and from new gym openings
- Understand possible future M&A in UK value gym sector – PureGym, The Gym Group, JD Gyms (JD Sports Fashion Plc), Everlast Gyms (Frasers Group Plc) and PE sponsors
- Understand PureGym’s steady state FCF (adjusting for impacts of new gym openings) across base, bear and bull cases relative to possible interest costs on proposed new SSNs issuance
- Understand JD Sports Fashion Plc’s and Frasers Group Plc’s strategies in UK gym sector
- Analysis of competitive landscape and how well PureGym’s gym concept would likely compete in US, India and China. Attractiveness for franchisees
- UK value gym market analysis – PureGym vs The Gym Group vs JD Gyms. Why we see JD Gyms as an increasingly strong competitor and remaining estimated upside for JD Gyms from its 2020 acquisition of Xercise4Less (X4L). Why we see Everlast Gyms “with frills” offering at a modest premium to the Big 3 value gym operators as also an increasingly strong competitor. Why we see The Gym Group as strategically constrained with increasing prospects of M&A activity and / or HY bond issuance
- M&A analysis – PureGym, The Gym Group, JD Gyms (JD Sports Fashion Plc), Everlast Gyms (Frasers Group Plc)
- Machine-learning based quantification of number of competing gyms within defined geographic distances for each of PureGym and The Gym Group’s UK gyms
- PureGym & The Gym Group – Base, bear and bull case financial projections, valuation and sensitivities
- Post-COVID Recovery Comparison – PureGym, The Gym Group, David Lloyd Leisure, Basic Fit, UK Value Gym & Gym Market
- Is PureGym’s offering of new SSNs attractive?
- How sensitive is PureGym’s EBITDA to new gym openings given operating leverage with respect to head office costs?
- M&A considerations for JD Sports Fashion Plc and Frasers Group Plc in gym sector – size and opportunism; financial capacity and EPS accretion; strategic complementarity and synergies; Competition Commission considerations; most likely acquirer and most likely target
- How well covered would SSNs be in bear case?