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Raffinerie Heide Memo 200422

Raffinerie Heide. Outlook For Refined Product Crack Spreads In High Oil Price Environment & Heide Valuation Sensitivity To These. Can SSNs Be Refinanced Even With Kalundborg Insertion Into Restricted Group?
PUBLISHED: 20 April 2022
PAGES: 124
SUBMARKET: Raffinerie Heide, Top Reports, Top Reports,


Why Read?

  • Understand drivers for refined product crack spreads, their relationship to crude oil prices, our outlook (both short-term and long-term) for refined product crack spreads and what these imply for Raffinerie Heide’s (RH) valuation. How well covered are RH’s SSNs by [EV + cash] given our outlook for refined product crack spreads and how sensitive is this coverage to the latter and to COGS cost inflation (in particular, to natural gas input costs)? 
  • Understand whether RH’s SSNs can be refinanced even with the insertion of the Kalundborg refinery into the Restricted Group as a refinancing sweetener, or whether an amend and extend (A&E) transaction may be pursued rather than a straight refinancing

What’s New?

  • How refined product crack spreads relationship to crude oil prices is more complex than we believe market participants currently perceive
  • Group financial projections, DCF and sensitivities (in particular to ULSD, jet fuel and chemical products crack spreads over Brent crude and to COGS cost inflation) – base, bull and bear cases

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