Raffinerie Heide Memo 200422
- Understand drivers for refined product crack spreads, their relationship to crude oil prices, our outlook (both short-term and long-term) for refined product crack spreads and what these imply for Raffinerie Heide’s (RH) valuation. How well covered are RH’s SSNs by [EV + cash] given our outlook for refined product crack spreads and how sensitive is this coverage to the latter and to COGS cost inflation (in particular, to natural gas input costs)?
- Understand whether RH’s SSNs can be refinanced even with the insertion of the Kalundborg refinery into the Restricted Group as a refinancing sweetener, or whether an amend and extend (A&E) transaction may be pursued rather than a straight refinancing
- How refined product crack spreads relationship to crude oil prices is more complex than we believe market participants currently perceive
- Group financial projections, DCF and sensitivities (in particular to ULSD, jet fuel and chemical products crack spreads over Brent crude and to COGS cost inflation) – base, bull and bear cases