Sectors > Top Reports > Selecta Memo 050520

Selecta Memo 050520

Selecta. Q5 19 - Shock & Restructure. Liquidity Tight. Deleveraging Potential Compromised. Restructuring Playbook For SSNs – Conviction Buy At 38.60
PUBLISHED: 05 May 2020
PAGES: 394
PRODUCT CODE: SELNSW0003
SUBMARKET: Selecta, Top Reports, Top Reports,

£2,670.00

Why Read?

  • Restructuring playbook for Senior Secured Notes (SSNs) holders – jurisdictional filing expectations; new money need and post-restructuring liquidity; EBITDA potential; expectations for mix of new SSNs and post-reorg equity; exit strategies from post-reorg equity; recovery rate / IRR / money multiple expectations; strategies available to KKR
  • Understand our new base, bear and bull case projections (including for liquidity and recoveries) following weak Q5 19 EBITDA and substantially weaker-than-expected liquidity position going into a coronavirus-impacted FY 20
  • Understand why Selecta, trading at 3.6x Q5 19 LTM EBITDA represents a deep value opportunity outright and compared to the European #2 player, IVS
  • Business analysis – segments, regions, clients, suppliers, substitutes
  • Industry overview – drivers; main private and public competitors; regulation
  • Pelican Rouge, Argenta Group and Express Vending acquisition analysis
  • Understand EBITDA potential with the expected synergies and one-off costs
  • Liquidity analysis and remaining liquidity levers
  • Understand the capital structure and the key terms of each instrument
  • Detailed DCF and trading comparables valuations

What’s New?

  • Restructuring playbook for SSNs holders – jurisdictional filing expectations; new money need and post-restructuring liquidity; EBITDA potential; expectations for mix of new SSNs and post-reorg equity; exit strategies from post-reorg equity; recovery rate / IRR / money multiple expectations; strategies available to KKR
  • Q5 19 exit liquidity position and EBITDA run-rate and coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on Selecta. Updated financial projections including for liquidity across base, bear and bull cases
  • Deep dive comparison of Selecta vs European #2 player, IVS, including cost benchmarking exercise to assess Selecta’s potential EBITDA
  • Q5 19 results analysis and comparison to our expectations

Questions Answered

  • What is the potential impact of COVID-19 on the business, both in the short and long term?
  • When do we expect liquidity to break and which additional liquidity levers remain?
  • Will the business be able to deleverage post the coronavirus disruption to the extent needed to refinance?
  • What recovery can be expected on the Senior Secured Notes (SSNs)?
  • What remaining basket availability exists for additional secured debt and why do we not envisage this being used substantially?
  • What strategies exist for KKR to recreate value for itself out of Selecta?
  • How does Selecta’s cost structure compare to IVS’ and what variability do we envisage to mitigate expected revenue decline in FY 20? Is there scope for EBITDA margin catch-up?
  • Why might working capital turn out to be a surprise positive in FY 20 (though we do not include this in our projections)?
  • What will be consumers’ appetite to use vending and coffee machines on returning to the workplace and public and semi-public locations as lockdowns ease?
  • Who might acquire Selecta?
  • Which part of Selecta’s persistent non-recurring items (NRIs) may turn out to be truly non-recurring post COVID?

 

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