Selecta Memo 250320
- Understand our new base, bear and bull case projections (including for liquidity) in the new coronavirus world of lockdowns and significant disruption to both Selecta’s workplace and on-the-go points of sale
- Understand why Selecta, trading at just over 3x Q4 19 LTM EBITDA and on a similar multiple vs FY 21E EBITDA, represents a deep value opportunity outright and compared to Italian competitor, IVS
- Analysis of refinancing vs restructuring / liability management exercise scenarios and associated probabilities
- Recovery rate analysis on Selecta’s Senior Secured Notes (SSNs) across base, bear and bull scenarios
- Business analysis – segments, regions, clients, suppliers, substitutes
- Industry overview – drivers; main private and public competitors; regulation
- Pelican Rouge, Argenta Group and Express Vending acquisition analysis
- Understand EBITDA potential with the expected synergies and one-off costs
- Liquidity analysis and remaining liquidity levers
- Understand the capital structure and the key terms of each instrument
- Detailed DCF and trading comparables valuations
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on Selecta. Updated financial projections including for liquidity across base, bear and bull cases
- Comparison of Selecta vs Italian competitor, IVS
- What is the potential impact of COVID-19 on the business, both in the short and long term?
- Under what circumstances would liquidity break and which additional liquidity levers remain?
- Will the business be able to deleverage post the coronavirus disruption to the extent needed to refinance?
- What recovery can be expected on the Senior Secured Notes (SSNs)?
- View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
- Business Overview
- Industry Overview
- Historic Financial Analysis
- Group Structure & Capitalization
- Trading Update – ER Q419
- Base Case Forecasts
- Bear Case Forecasts
- Bull Case Forecasts
- Liquidity, Capital Markets And Restructuring
- Investment Considerations