Sectors > Top Reports > Selecta Memo 250320

Selecta Memo 250320

Selecta Hits Rock Bottom? Conviction Buy On SSNs at c. 50 Cents
PUBLISHED: 25 March 2020
PAGES: 276
PRODUCT CODE: SELNSW0002
SUBMARKET: Selecta, Top Reports, Top Reports,

£2,670.00

Why Read?

  • Understand our new base, bear and bull case projections (including for liquidity) in the new coronavirus world of lockdowns and significant disruption to both Selecta’s workplace and on-the-go points of sale
  • Understand why Selecta, trading at just over 3x Q4 19 LTM EBITDA and on a similar multiple vs FY 21E EBITDA, represents a deep value opportunity outright and compared to Italian competitor, IVS
  • Analysis of refinancing vs restructuring / liability management exercise scenarios and associated probabilities
  • Recovery rate analysis on Selecta’s Senior Secured Notes (SSNs) across base, bear and bull scenarios
  • Business analysis – segments, regions, clients, suppliers, substitutes
  • Industry overview – drivers; main private and public competitors; regulation
  • Pelican Rouge, Argenta Group and Express Vending acquisition analysis
  • Understand EBITDA potential with the expected synergies and one-off costs
  • Liquidity analysis and remaining liquidity levers
  • Understand the capital structure and the key terms of each instrument
  • Detailed DCF and trading comparables valuations

What’s New?

  • Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on Selecta. Updated financial projections including for liquidity across base, bear and bull cases
  • Comparison of Selecta vs Italian competitor, IVS

Questions Answered

  • What is the potential impact of COVID-19 on the business, both in the short and long term?
  • Under what circumstances would liquidity break and which additional liquidity levers remain?
  • Will the business be able to deleverage post the coronavirus disruption to the extent needed to refinance?
  • What recovery can be expected on the Senior Secured Notes (SSNs)?

 


  1. View, Variant Perception & Recommendations

  2. Business Overview

  3. Industry Overview

  4. Regulation

  5. Macro

  6. M&A

  7. Historic Financial Analysis

  8. Group Structure & Capitalization

  9. Trading Update – ER Q419

  10. Coronavirus

  11. Base Case Forecasts

  12. Bear Case Forecasts

  13. Bull Case Forecasts

  14. Liquidity, Capital Markets And Restructuring

  15. Investment Considerations

    Appendix

Selecta


IVS


Daltys


Maas


Aramark


Compass


Elior


JDE


Dallmayr


Lavazza 


Starbucks


Coca Cola


Tesco


7 Eleven


Relay


 


 

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